TRREB’s 2025 Market Outlook and Year in Review is your go-to resource for understanding what’s next for the housing market. In this Ready to Real Estate episode, Sean Simpson, Senior Vice President of Ipsos Public Affairs sits down with Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Market Analyst and podcast host to break down emerging trends, buying and selling intentions, and what this means for the year ahead.

Who is Looking to Buy a Home?

Ipsos polling suggests the market will be driven by necessity, meaning those who need to move for a reason. First-time home buyers continue to drive the market with 45 per cent of those considering purchasing a home, and three-quarters of recent homebuyers being first-time buyers. “First-time buyers are more likely to follow through on a purchase, while those with the option to buy or wait tend to hold off during times of uncertainty. This explains why this group represents only about a quarter of recent transactions,” Sean explains.

Annual polling indicates that many buyers are waiting for more favorable interest rates. For instance, only nine per cent of people are very likely to purchase a home with a 100-basis point or one percentage point reduction. The percentage of those very likely to purchase substantially increases with a 200-basis point or two percentage point reduction. As a result, TRREB and Ipsos anticipate a softer spring market due to persistently relatively higher interest rates. However, TRREB projects as rates continue to decrease throughout the year, more activity is expected in the latter part of 2025.

Interest rates are just one factor influencing buying decisions. Many prospective buyers also weigh their financial health, job security, and the ability to afford daily necessities. TRREB forecasts there will be 76,000 transactions in 2025, an improvement from 2023 and 2024, but still significantly lower than the peak activity of 100,000 transactions in 2021. “To return to 100,000 transactions, we need to see substantial relief in interest rates or an increase in people’s incomes during this period,” says Jason.

Housing Supply

Listings are up in 2025 compared to the previous two years. Sean explains “listing intentions are fairly flat, only 14 per cent are very likely to list, and that’s bang on with last year.” The GTA will see a decent amount of supply, especially on the high-rise side, but low inventory is still expected for the single-family home segments.

“More choice will give buyers greater negotiating power,” Jason says. Price expectations for the upcoming year are not expected to see much growth. Buyers recognize there’s elevated inventory, sales are taking longer, and they have more leverage to negotiate better prices for their purchases.

The Threat of Tariffs and its Impact on the Canadian Economy

With US-imposed tariffs on Canadian goods and services exported south of the border, the impact on economic growth and the labour market is yet to be seen. “The next six months, Canadians are more negative than I’ve ever seen them about what might happen,” says Sean. The implications are significant, as workplaces have begun layoffs, leading many potential buyers to postpone their purchases to assess the situation before making a decision that suits them best.

Get the full breakdown for what lies ahead for the 2025 housing market, listen to the full episode on the Ready to Real Estate podcast.